Why no babies?
Some obvious theories do not seem to be corroborated by the evidence.
- it is all the fault of women's lib, eroding the traditional family, encouraging women to go and work and "fulfil themselves" in other ways then having children... but Japan still has severely traditional roles and rampant sexism, and Korea, Russia and (surprisingly) Germany are not that liberated. Those cliches of liberated womenhood, Scandinavians have higher birthrates, even if still below replacement;
- "the decline of the west": but it is taking place everywhere
- the lagged response of birth rates to lower death rates, the so-called demographic transition. Certainly that is a major factor why population surges followed by a fall in the birth rate which then reduces the growth - but not the difference between similar countries, such as very low birth rates in Spain and Italy and higher rates in France next door, or USA (close to replacement) and Canada (as in so much else, Europeans in check shirts)
- higher immigrant birth rates. A partial explanation but a patchy and incosistent one, and disappears over time. Hispanic birth rates are higher than "whites" in the US, but not by much, and converging. South Asian families (Hindu or Moslem) have higher birth rates (still over 3 per women) but falling sharply in the UK, but immigrants in France do not appear to have a significantly higher rate than native Frenchwomen (who admittedly reproduce faster than some of their European sisters). The French government does not publish statistics by ethnic group, bit does by region, and the birth rates are remarkably similar between those areas with a high immigrant population and those where there are not (there are more immigrant births because of a younger age structure, but that is another issue)
- modernisation and urbanisation. The biggest single factor, with a clear correlation. Give women a minimum of freedom, contraception, and push people into urban environments and they have fewer children. They do not have to be rich or even well educated for this to happen
- capitalist values. I go with the Russian joke that socialism was evil and incompetent, while capitalism is evil and competent. Greed is good, and materialism the highest value. We all have to work all hours, and the system bids up the price of key assets (especially housing) so we need to. Result is no-one has time to breed
- religion. Ambigouous. Despite much better social incentives Americans have far more children than Canadians - religion seems the only explanation. But even the secular "blue" states breed more, if age structure is taken into account. It may have something to do with Americans still being generally optimistic - for them and for their children. But Thais, Indians, Iranians are religious, and their birth rates are falling sharply
- it is all the fault of women's lib, eroding the traditional family, encouraging women to go and work and "fulfil themselves" in other ways then having children... but Japan still has severely traditional roles and rampant sexism, and Korea, Russia and (surprisingly) Germany are not that liberated. Those cliches of liberated womenhood, Scandinavians have higher birthrates, even if still below replacement;
- "the decline of the west": but it is taking place everywhere
- the lagged response of birth rates to lower death rates, the so-called demographic transition. Certainly that is a major factor why population surges followed by a fall in the birth rate which then reduces the growth - but not the difference between similar countries, such as very low birth rates in Spain and Italy and higher rates in France next door, or USA (close to replacement) and Canada (as in so much else, Europeans in check shirts)
- higher immigrant birth rates. A partial explanation but a patchy and incosistent one, and disappears over time. Hispanic birth rates are higher than "whites" in the US, but not by much, and converging. South Asian families (Hindu or Moslem) have higher birth rates (still over 3 per women) but falling sharply in the UK, but immigrants in France do not appear to have a significantly higher rate than native Frenchwomen (who admittedly reproduce faster than some of their European sisters). The French government does not publish statistics by ethnic group, bit does by region, and the birth rates are remarkably similar between those areas with a high immigrant population and those where there are not (there are more immigrant births because of a younger age structure, but that is another issue)
- modernisation and urbanisation. The biggest single factor, with a clear correlation. Give women a minimum of freedom, contraception, and push people into urban environments and they have fewer children. They do not have to be rich or even well educated for this to happen
- capitalist values. I go with the Russian joke that socialism was evil and incompetent, while capitalism is evil and competent. Greed is good, and materialism the highest value. We all have to work all hours, and the system bids up the price of key assets (especially housing) so we need to. Result is no-one has time to breed
- religion. Ambigouous. Despite much better social incentives Americans have far more children than Canadians - religion seems the only explanation. But even the secular "blue" states breed more, if age structure is taken into account. It may have something to do with Americans still being generally optimistic - for them and for their children. But Thais, Indians, Iranians are religious, and their birth rates are falling sharply
Labels: Demography
posted by Total Issues at 8:52 pm
2 Comments:
The roots of sufism are indeed under debate. Some see it as a response to the message of peace and love found in the Christian scriptures. Reading ibn al-Arabi, you find an amazing sense of this powerful love and forgiveness that also comes across in the Christian mystics.
The feminine side of God is sometimes traced back to the representation of wisdom in the apocryphal book of Wisdom as a woman as indicating some form of awareness of this issue. The tradition of theotokos in Orthodox Christianity became integrated to pneumatology in the glorious writings of Bulgakov and Solvyov.
The roots of sufism are indeed under debate. Some see it as a response to the message of peace and love found in the Christian scriptures. Reading ibn al-Arabi, you find an amazing sense of this powerful love and forgiveness that also comes across in the Christian mystics.
The feminine side of God is sometimes traced back to the representation of wisdom in the apocryphal book of Wisdom as a woman as indicating some form of awareness of this issue. The tradition of theotokos in Orthodox Christianity became integrated to pneumatology in the glorious writings of Bulgakov and Solvyov.
Post a Comment
<< Home