Developed societies are not sustainable: they do not reproduce
It is only a few years ago that world's biggest problem seemed to be overpopulation. Be careful what you wish for.
If, as still seems probable, the world manages to survive the global greenhouse, there is another slower and more insidious major problem: industrial society, on present demographic trends, is not sustainable because the population will collapse through lack of births. This map shows not only the extent of the fall in global birthrates, but some unexpected details. Birth rates are below replacement levels of 2.1 children per woman in all of the developed world with the singular exception of the United States, where they are just above replacement. They are also below replacement however in China, Brazil, parts of South East Asia (Thailand, Vietnam), and interestingly in the more developed parts of the Middle East, (with the singular exceptions of Saudi Arabia and Iraq), that is in Turkey, Iran, Algeria and Tunisia. In India, spanish speaking Latin America and most of the rest of the middle East birth rates have fallen sharply to just above replacement, between 2-3 children per woman, and judging from trends elsewhere will continue to fall to below replacement.
In the developing world the fall in birthrates has been so sudden that total population will continue to grow for at least another generation, due to the age structure of the population. In developed countries where birth rates have been low for some time, and have now fallen to very low levels, then absolute population decline is in prospects unless counteracted by immigration: Japan and Korea especially, Germany, Italy and most of eastern Europe and Russia.
What are the causes? What are the implications, and does it matter? What can be done about it? I will focus on this in later posts.
If, as still seems probable, the world manages to survive the global greenhouse, there is another slower and more insidious major problem: industrial society, on present demographic trends, is not sustainable because the population will collapse through lack of births. This map shows not only the extent of the fall in global birthrates, but some unexpected details. Birth rates are below replacement levels of 2.1 children per woman in all of the developed world with the singular exception of the United States, where they are just above replacement. They are also below replacement however in China, Brazil, parts of South East Asia (Thailand, Vietnam), and interestingly in the more developed parts of the Middle East, (with the singular exceptions of Saudi Arabia and Iraq), that is in Turkey, Iran, Algeria and Tunisia. In India, spanish speaking Latin America and most of the rest of the middle East birth rates have fallen sharply to just above replacement, between 2-3 children per woman, and judging from trends elsewhere will continue to fall to below replacement.
In the developing world the fall in birthrates has been so sudden that total population will continue to grow for at least another generation, due to the age structure of the population. In developed countries where birth rates have been low for some time, and have now fallen to very low levels, then absolute population decline is in prospects unless counteracted by immigration: Japan and Korea especially, Germany, Italy and most of eastern Europe and Russia.
What are the causes? What are the implications, and does it matter? What can be done about it? I will focus on this in later posts.
Labels: Demography
posted by Total Issues at 12:24 pm
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