A demographic league table
Here is a good paper on what influences fertility rates, with implications for public policy.
My informal tables of total fertility rates per woman are something like this:
1. Totally traditional patriarchal society (e.g Yemen, large bits of Africa): 6-8 children per women
Modern (fundamentalist) patriarchy e.g Hasidics, Hutterites can match this number. Muslims do not seem to do quite as well, Saudi TFR has fallen from 6 to less than 4 in the past decade, except for Palies.
2. Welfare state with established pro-natalist policies, and a culture where men are expected to help with the children : 1.7-2.0 (France, Scandinavia)
3. Anglosphere with poorer maternity benefits, but flexible labour markets (plenty of part time jobs) and culture of equality between the sexes: 1.7 -1.9 (USA, UK, New Zealand). High birth rates among immigrants (because of age structure more than TFR) boost US to replacement level
4. Anglosphere with less flexible labour markets 1.5 -1.6 (Australia, Canada)
5. Modern states without substantial fertility incentives and traditionalist views on sex roles: 1.2-1.4 (central and southern Europe, Russia, east Asia)
Surprisingly, cost of housing does not seem to make a huge difference (it's cheap in Germany), nor do working hours. A culture where everyone is expected to get a PhD and thus does not start earning until they are in late 20s is also a bit of bummer for birth rates (Germany, Italy, South Korea).
None of the above requires assumptions about religious belief, about unconscious national death wishes, or decadent "live for today"
It does seem, counterintuitively, that the feminists have a point. It will be easier to change labour markets and maternity benefits than to eradicate sexism, and get Russian or Japanese men to change diapers. Note that there are a lot of developing countries in the 2-3 TFR range moving very rapidly from (1) to - where? Given persistent global sexism, could go all the way to (5) e.g in Latin America - or the Muslim world. Note how communism failed to dent sexist attitudes, despite the egalitarian rhetoric.
My informal tables of total fertility rates per woman are something like this:
1. Totally traditional patriarchal society (e.g Yemen, large bits of Africa): 6-8 children per women
Modern (fundamentalist) patriarchy e.g Hasidics, Hutterites can match this number. Muslims do not seem to do quite as well, Saudi TFR has fallen from 6 to less than 4 in the past decade, except for Palies.
2. Welfare state with established pro-natalist policies, and a culture where men are expected to help with the children : 1.7-2.0 (France, Scandinavia)
3. Anglosphere with poorer maternity benefits, but flexible labour markets (plenty of part time jobs) and culture of equality between the sexes: 1.7 -1.9 (USA, UK, New Zealand). High birth rates among immigrants (because of age structure more than TFR) boost US to replacement level
4. Anglosphere with less flexible labour markets 1.5 -1.6 (Australia, Canada)
5. Modern states without substantial fertility incentives and traditionalist views on sex roles: 1.2-1.4 (central and southern Europe, Russia, east Asia)
Surprisingly, cost of housing does not seem to make a huge difference (it's cheap in Germany), nor do working hours. A culture where everyone is expected to get a PhD and thus does not start earning until they are in late 20s is also a bit of bummer for birth rates (Germany, Italy, South Korea).
None of the above requires assumptions about religious belief, about unconscious national death wishes, or decadent "live for today"
It does seem, counterintuitively, that the feminists have a point. It will be easier to change labour markets and maternity benefits than to eradicate sexism, and get Russian or Japanese men to change diapers. Note that there are a lot of developing countries in the 2-3 TFR range moving very rapidly from (1) to - where? Given persistent global sexism, could go all the way to (5) e.g in Latin America - or the Muslim world. Note how communism failed to dent sexist attitudes, despite the egalitarian rhetoric.
Labels: Demography
posted by Total Issues at 6:12 pm
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